Did Hamas and the Palestinian Authority Fall Into a Trap From Which There Is No Escape?
Urgent: Has Israel once again reasserted the legitimacy of its position through President Trump’s festive plan for a ceasefire? Did this plan trap Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, leaving them with no way out? What are the real stages of the plan? Is it good or bad for Israel? Here is an exclusive analysis for Gplanet members.
In the festive halls of Congress and the White House, Prime Minister Netanyahu managed to put forth a joint plan with the Americans that included Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. For them, it will be very difficult to escape. If they do not cooperate at all, it will be seen as a blatant act of hostility toward Israel and the United States. That, in turn, would require them to pay a heavy price. This is something Israel has not had in a long time. And who gave us this new strategic depth? President Trump.
Trump’s Belief in Peace
President Trump truly believes in peace in the Middle East, and he mobilized all Arab countries on the eve of releasing the plan. Netanyahu managed to alter the wording of the plan, so that instead of being a trap for Israel, it became a trap for Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.
As we already explained this morning on our Telegram channel, the plan has turned into a “red snare” against Hamas and the PA.
In the official announcement, which partly outlines a ceasefire, Netanyahu detailed the binding conditions that Trump agreed to. These conditions now oblige Hamas.
The Binding Stages of the Plan
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Stage One: Hamas must release all hostages alive within 72 hours. This is the only immediate and unconditional demand. Everything else is contingent. If this does not happen within 72 hours, or if not all hostages are released, Hamas will bear the blame, and Trump will enforce the consequences.
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Stage Two: If Hamas agrees to the plan, it must release everyone. This would mark an “Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire in Gaza,” but only after all hostages are freed.
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Stage Three: President Trump himself will establish an international body to separate Hamas from the civilian population of Gaza. This body will consist of Arab leaders—similar to Tony Blair’s role in the past—who ultimately left Gaza impoverished and ruined. This body would supervise the demilitarization of Hamas and prevent further attacks on Israel.
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Stage Four: If this international body succeeds, Israel will finally end the war, but only after full demilitarization and disarmament of Hamas. The war will not end merely with a ceasefire and the release of hostages, but only after Hamas has been fully disarmed—a stage that may never actually arrive.
This strikes at the very core of Hamas’s central demand: to end the war without disarming. Trump will not accept that.
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Stage Five: Only after demilitarization will Israel conclude the war. Until then, Israel will continue targeted strikes and separations. If demilitarization does not take place, Netanyahu’s government will reject the plan.
Strategic Depth for Israel
In any case, Israel will remain in full security control around Gaza without time limits, and it will preserve its freedom to operate militarily. These are central conditions for Israel’s security. Hamas, of course, will never agree to dismantle its military infrastructure—meaning Hamas will never accept the plan.
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If Hamas refuses these steps, Israel will destroy it militarily, this time with full support from Trump. In such a scenario, Israel would also be able to take additional measures.
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A final clause: the Rafah crossing would be opened to allow Gazans who wish to leave, but none would be allowed to return.
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As for the Palestinian Authority, it will not become a Palestinian state. Trump himself agreed to this point, as he does not trust the Arab leadership.
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The PA will have no role in Gaza until it undergoes “genuine, authentic change,” in line with Trump’s 2020 conditions: dismantling terrorist militias, halting payments to terrorists and their families, stopping incitement, canceling hostile steps in international institutions, recognizing Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people, and much more. Clearly, none of this will happen.
The Trap Closes
The plan has shifted the focus from “Israeli concessions,” which are always demanded, to American presidential demands imposed on the Palestinians. Even Macron has admitted Hamas cannot implement the plan.
The plan now opens for Israel a host of new opportunities, including expanded ties with Arab countries.
The chances that Hamas will accept the harsh conditions are minimal. Even if it pretends to say “yes, but,” the plan forces Hamas into a corner at every stage. For the first time, a plan requires immediate “payment”—the release of all hostages upfront. Hamas has rejected such conditions many times before. This time, however, Trump is personally invested, and the whole world will focus on Hamas’s refusal.
Israel is now the decisive actor, watching everything Hamas does. Every terrorist who emerges will be struck immediately. Hamas has no intention of disarming or separating from its terror organizations—on the contrary. It openly declares its defiance.
Qatar
Netanyahu indeed confronted the Qatari Prime Minister over “the problem of Qatari mediation” and effectively neutralized Qatar within the process. But there is also a triangle of aid: Israeli, American, and Egyptian. To test Qatar’s hostility, consider Al Jazeera broadcasts, support for the Muslim Brotherhood, hostility toward Jews on campuses, and more. The evidence is overwhelming. Qatar is caught. From now on, an American blow against Qatar will follow.
This is a domino effect: one state after another returning to Israel’s side.
The Palestinian Authority Again
There is no chance the PA will agree to these terms—especially not recognition of Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people. It will stumble over this point and collapse into Netanyahu’s hands. These conditions are already being discussed in a special White House conference and broadcast worldwide.
Both Hamas and the PA have already cried out for rescue after the plan’s publication.
Conclusion
Hamas now realizes this is a “deceptive plan,” much like the one Netanyahu and Trump imposed on Iran. If Hamas rejects or sabotages the plan, it will have to be removed from its current bases of support.
Netanyahu has also challenged Qatar directly, exposing its duplicity. Qatar’s mask has fallen, and now American measures will follow. This process represents a return of states to Israel’s orbit.
As for the PA, it will be unable to accept the terms. Recognition of Israel as the Jewish nation-state is something it will never agree to. Thus, it too is trapped.
Hamas and the PA, having cried out in distress, find themselves ensnared in Trump’s plan—unable to move forward, unable to retreat. Israel, meanwhile, holds all the cards.